Starmer's Allies Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Block Mayor's Commons Comeback

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a coordinated campaign to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to the House of Commons. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an upcoming byelection.

Serious Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Process

A number of figures on the party's ruling NEC have apparently suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is largely due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are desperate to avert any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The party apparatus reportedly swung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted consternation within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would only return Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of sources also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the body could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a strong campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an offensive online group.