Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."